A hybrid PV cluster power prediction model using BLS with GMCC and error correction via RVM considering an improved statistical upscaling technique

Lihong Qiu, Wentao Ma, Xiaoyang Feng, Jiahui Dai, Yuzhuo Dong, Jiandong Duan and Badong Chen

Applied Energy, 2024, vol. 359, issue C, No S0306261924001028

Abstract: Accurate cluster photovoltaic power prediction (CPPP) is crucial for the operation and control of renewable energy grid-connected power systems. The traditional modeling strategies for CPPP such as direct aggregation (DA) and statistical upscaling (SU) have limitations such as error accumulation and upscaling factor uncertainty. To address these issues, this paper proposed a novel hybrid approach for CPPP by combining machine learning models with an improved SU technique. Firstly, a robust broad learning system (BLS) model, in which the Generalized Maximum Correntropy Criterion (GMCC) is used to replace the original mean square error (MSE) loss in BLS, is proposed to solve the problem of multiple outliers affecting the prediction accuracy of regional cluster stations, and it is called GBLS. Then, the Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) as an effective nonlinear regression model is further utilized to compensate for the prediction errors obtained by the GBLS to form the hybrid prediction model, namely GBLS-RVM. Moreover, to mitigate the uncertainty associated with scaling factors in traditional SU strategy, a new SU strategy is developed to refine the relationship between the reference station and the cluster sub-region, enabling direct modeling for regional power prediction. Finally, data from two PV clusters in different regions of China are used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed model, and the results show that under the improved SU strategy, the GBLS-RVM model, reduced RMSE by approximately 33.7% compared to the traditional BLS model, and the RMSE decreased by 12.89% and 30.2% when compared to traditional DA and traditional SU strategies.

Keywords: PV cluster power prediction; Broad learning system; Generalized maximum correntropy criterion; Relevance vector machine; Statistical upscaling method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.122719

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