Sensitivity analysis and multiobjective optimization for rural house retrofitting considering construction and occupant behavior uncertainty: A case study of Jiaxian, China

Di Wu, Taoyuan Zhang, Jiqiang Zhang, Hongyi Lv, Chao Yue and Mengze Fu

Applied Energy, 2024, vol. 360, issue C, No S0306261924002186

Abstract: Due to their relatively low economic and technological level and unique life style, rural houses retrofits bear more uncertainties in construction and occupant behavior. However, these uncertainties for rural house retrofits have not yet been fully investigated, since previous studies have focused mostly on residential buildings or office buildings in urban areas. Therefore, to obtain more targeted and reliable analysis, a methodology that integrates the uncertainties of the construction structure, envelope retrofit construction and occupant behavior is proposed for rural house retrofits. First, the uncertain inputs are quantified through two global sensitivity analysis methods (SRC and TGP). Then, Pareto front solutions of envelope retrofit construction and occupant behavior are obtained for each typical structure through multiobjective optimization. Furthermore, the entropy weight method is used to analyze the Pareto front solutions, based on which the optimization objectives for different structures of rural houses are analyzed, and the optimal solutions are found. The methodology is applied to a case study of Jiaxian, which is a typical underdeveloped rural area in the hot-summer and cold-winter zone of China. The results of the global sensitivity analysis reveal that the three most sensitive factors affect approximately 80% to 98% of the uncertain outputs (discomfort hours and total energy consumption). The entropy weight results reveal that traditional timber-masonry house with pitched roof has a balanced emphasis optimizing both discomfort hours and total energy consumption, while brick-concrete house with flat roof reveals more discrepancy. The results of multiobjective optimization indicate significant energy-saving rate (45–68%), while the improvement in discomfort hours is relatively limited (6–13%). The results provide more reliable energy analysis results to correctly support rural retrofit design, and enlighten targeted retrofit strategies for different construction structures.

Keywords: Rural house retrofit; Envelope; Energy efficiency and thermal comfort; Sensitivity analysis; Multiobjective optimization; Entropy weight method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.122835

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