GGNet: A novel graph structure for power forecasting in renewable power plants considering temporal lead-lag correlations

Nanyang Zhu, Ying Wang, Kun Yuan, Jiahao Yan, Yaping Li and Kaifeng Zhang

Applied Energy, 2024, vol. 364, issue C, No S0306261924005774

Abstract: Power forecast for each renewable power plant (RPP) in the renewable energy clusters is essential. Though existing graph neural networks (GNN)-based models achieve satisfactory prediction performance by capturing dependencies among distinct RPPs, the static graph structure employed in these models ignores crucial lead-lag correlations among RPPs, resulting from the time difference of the air flow at spatially dispersed RPPs. To address this problem, this paper proposes a novel dynamic graph structure using multiple temporal granularity groups (TGGs) to characterize the lead-lag correlations among RPPs. A granular-based GNN called GGNet is designed to generate an optimal adjacency matrix for the proposed graph structure. Specifically, a two-dimensional convolutional neural network (2D-CNN) is used to quantify the uncertain lead-lag correlations among RPPs; secondly, a gate mechanism is used to calculate a dynamic adjacency matrix; Finally, a graph attention network (GAT) is used to aggregate the information on RPPs based on the well-learned adjacency matrix. Case studies conducted using real-world datasets, with wind power plants and photovoltaic power plants, show our method outperforms state-of-the-art (SoTA) ones with better performance. Compared with the SoTA models, the RMSEN and MAEN of wind power plants for 1–4 h forecast steps decreased on average by 22.925% and 13.18%, respectively; the RMSEN and MAEN of photovoltaic power plants for 1–4 h forecast steps decreased on average by 48.95% and 18.75%, respectively. The results show that the proposed framework can generate improved performance with accuracy and robustness.

Keywords: GNN; Renewable power plants; Multiple granularity groups; Adjacency matrix (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123194

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