Optimizing multi-step wind power forecasting: Integrating advanced deep neural networks with stacking-based probabilistic learning

Lucas de Azevedo Takara, Ana Clara Teixeira, Hamed Yazdanpanah, Viviana Cocco Mariani and Leandro dos Santos Coelho

Applied Energy, 2024, vol. 369, issue C, No S0306261924008705

Abstract: Integrating enormous quantities of wind energy into the electrical system requires precise planning and forecasting. This paper presents a novel framework for wind power forecasting, which establishes a new standard for accuracy and reliability. It uses advanced deep neural networks and a stacking ensemble mechanism to make probabilistic forecasts. These forecasts address wind speed volatility and variability, which continue to be key issues in producing consistently accurate wind power forecasts despite advances in deep learning. Base learners generate forecasts that include lower and upper bounds, as well as median prediction intervals. The Huber regressor, also known as the Meta-learner, combines projections from many models to reduce susceptibility to extreme values. Expanding window cross-validation is used in performance evaluation, with a focus on Mean Absolute Error, Mean Squared Error (MSE), Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error, Prediction Interval Coverage Probability, and Average Interval Width for one, two, and three step ahead predictions. The model’s stability is measured by the standard deviation of MSE throughout each validation window. Additionally, the Diebold–Mariano test is used to validate the Meta-learner’s predictive accuracy in contrast to other advanced models and the seasonal naïve benchmark. This study found that the meta model outperformed all other models in eight of the nine forecasts tested, indicating its effectiveness in medium-range forecasting. In Germany, it exceeded Temporal Fusion Transformer by two and three steps ahead, with 22% and 34% improvements, respectively. Indeed, this study not only provides a reliable prediction tool, but also lays foundations for efficient and effective energy management and policy planning in the renewable energy industry.

Keywords: Wind power forecasting; Time series forecasting; Ensemble learning; Stacking learning; Deep neural networks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261924008705
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:appene:v:369:y:2024:i:c:s0306261924008705

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/bibliographic
http://www.elsevier. ... 405891/bibliographic

DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123487

Access Statistics for this article

Applied Energy is currently edited by J. Yan

More articles in Applied Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().