Unveiling the evolution and future prospects: A comprehensive review of low-carbon transition in the coal power industry

Yun-Long Zhang, Jia-Ning Kang, Lan-Cui Liu and Yi-Ming Wei

Applied Energy, 2024, vol. 371, issue C, No S0306261924010328

Abstract: Transitioning to low-carbon coal power plants is critical in addressing climate change, given the significant contribution of coal-fired power generation to global CO2 emissions. Our understanding of the low-carbon transition in the coal power sector has significantly advanced in recent decades. However, the sector's transition remains contentious due to methodological disparities, inconsistent datasets, and varying assumptions across existing studies, which pose challenges for predicting future research trajectories and actions. To address this issue, we developed a Document-based Information Mining and Statistical Analysis Method, conducting a comprehensive review, bibliometric analysis, and comparative study of 1905 journal articles and 14 databases sourced from international authorities. Our quantitative analysis reveals a notable upswing in publications and international collaborative efforts in coal power transition research, with average growth rates of 8.6%, 9.3%, and 3.7% for authors, countries, and institutions, respectively. These studies depict diverse transition trajectories, projecting global and Chinese coal power capacities ranging from 58-927 GW and 0-395 GW in 2050, driven by six key uncertainties such as carbon budgets and energy demand variations, and advancements in CCUS and renewable technologies. We categorized 44 major coal-dependent countries into three groups based on their engagement with coal power transition research, identified three potential transition patterns aligned with temperature control goals, and outlined four distinct research stages in the evolution of coal power transition. Drawing from these insights, we conclude with valuable perspectives on the expansion of international collaboration, reduction of transition uncertainty, focus for future research, and mitigation of transition risks.

Keywords: Coal power; Low carbon transition; Evolutionary patterns; System review; Bibliometrics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123649

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