A novel method for long-term power demand prediction using enhanced data decomposition and neural network with integrated uncertainty analysis: A Cuba case study

Manuel Soto Calvo, Han Soo Lee and Sylvester William Chisale

Applied Energy, 2024, vol. 372, issue C, No S0306261924012479

Abstract: This study developed a methodological approach for long-term electricity demand forecasting and applied it to the electricity demand in Cuba, which is crucial for transitioning from a fossil fuel-dependent system to renewable energy sources. The methodology employs enhanced complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (ECEEMDAN) applied for obtaining long-term trends from historical electricity usage data decomposition, combined with a long short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning model for prediction. Comprehensive datasets, including historical electricity consumption, economic indicators, and demographic data, are utilized in the analysis. Monte Carlo simulations, then, are integrated to address uncertainties in prediction and explore 50 different scenarios of future electricity demand. The study forecasts varying scenarios for the energy demand of Cuba by 2050, with the extreme low scenario projecting a decrease of up to 7.9% compared to the 2019 level. This research offers a groundbreaking framework specifically designed to aid Cuba's energy sector stakeholders in informed decision-making during this critical energy transition. The adaptability of the methodology makes it applicable for long-term projections in various sectors, offering a reliable tool for global decision makers.

Keywords: Enhanced ensemble empirical mode decomposition (ECEEMDAN); Long short-term memory (LSTM); Monte Carlo simulation; CMIP6; Energy planning and strategy; Energy policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123864

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