Assessment of the economic impact of forecasting errors in Peer-to-Peer energy trading

Bidan Zhang, Guannan He, Yang Du, Haoran Wen, Xintao Huan, Bowen Xing and Jingsi Huang

Applied Energy, 2024, vol. 374, issue C, No S0306261924011334

Abstract: With the rapid advancement of distributed energy resources (DERs), artificial intelligence, and smart meter technologies, traditional consumers are undergoing a paradigm shift towards ‘prosumers’. In this context, peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading emerges as an effective approach to enhance local energy utilization. Nevertheless, the inherent intermittency and forecasting challenges associated with renewable energy resources may magnify uncertainties in the markets, and pose a potential threat to destabilize the markets. To address this challenge, this paper presents a method to assess the economic impacts of forecasting errors and introduces a metric, the bill deviation index. Additionally, the consequences of forecasting errors on market outcomes are examined based on the mathematical model of three different pricing mechanisms. Our findings indicate that forecasting errors can lead to significant financial discrepancies, the magnitude of which is closely related to the pricing mechanisms and their dependency on energy quantity. The paper further underscores the role of variability in clearing price, balancing cost, and the supply–demand relationship in determining the economic fallout of forecasting errors. It concludes by providing insights for managing energy trading in markets marked by high forecasting errors and suggests strategies to mitigate the associated economic risks.

Keywords: Peer-to-Peer energy trading; Trading mechanism; Economic impact; Forecasting errors; Pricing model; Double auction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261924011334
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:appene:v:374:y:2024:i:c:s0306261924011334

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/bibliographic
http://www.elsevier. ... 405891/bibliographic

DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123750

Access Statistics for this article

Applied Energy is currently edited by J. Yan

More articles in Applied Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().