Evaluating the growth of Singapore's solar electricity capacity towards Green Plan 2030 targets and beyond using system dynamics modelling approach

Wei Kit Khoong and Sreenivasulu Bellam

Applied Energy, 2024, vol. 376, issue PA, No S0306261924014740

Abstract: Having no native energy resources of fossil fuels, with poor wind resource and scarcity of land, the Solar Photovoltaic (PV) roadmap identified solar electricity as the most feasible source of renewable energy for Singapore's energy mix and supply. Moving towards net-zero emissions and to combat climate change, the Singapore government is aiming to achieve 2-Gigawatt-peak (GWp) of solar electricity target by 2030. Accordingly, the share of solar energy in the national grid is targeted to be between ∼2–6% in 2030 and ∼ 3.5–8% in 2040, and carbon emission savings to be ∼0.5–1.4 and ∼ 0.8–2.1 million tonnes per annum in 2030 and 2040 respectively. Although these ambitious targets align with the government's plans for mitigating emissions, Singapore faces great challenge in terms of land availability to install ground-mounted solar PV panels. In this paper, a system dynamics model is developed to study- to what extent can Singapore achieve the targeted solar electricity goals by 2030 or even beyond based on Green Plan 2030, what policies can be identified to achieve these targets, and how much carbon savings can be achieved through Solar electricity deployment. Accordingly, this paper presents systems thinking and system dynamics (ST&SD) methodology to model the growth of Singapore's solar capacity, carbon emission savings and share of electricity demand met by solar electricity while focusing on key complex factors such as area utilisation, subsidies, PV panel efficiency etc. Results of our model simulations and projections, based on the key data and assumptions, and policy scenarios show that Singapore's solar capacity can be accelerated by the implementation of the proposed policies to reach 2GWp goal towards 2030 or even slightly ahead of this timeline. However, should the government revise its solar capacity targets higher for the years past 2030 i.e. to achieve 8% share of total electricity generation, perhaps by 2040, policies such as an increased area utilisation, subsidies and higher panel efficiency need to be introduced. Our model simulations incorporating and evaluating these policy scenarios yielded the results aligning with the projections mentioned above. The results and insights presented in this paper offer useful recommendations to the researchers and policy makers in the field of solar electricity system in Singapore, and to study further for better policy making.

Keywords: Solar electricity capacity; Singapore's energy mix; Systems thinking; System dynamics modelling; Carbon savings; Singapore Green Plan 2030 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124091

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