Carbon emission drivers of China's power sector and its transformation for global decarbonization contribution

Laijun Zhao, Ke Wang, Hongru Yi, Youfeng Cheng, Juntao Zhen and Haisheng Hu

Applied Energy, 2024, vol. 376, issue PA, No S0306261924016416

Abstract: To explore the contribution of China's power sector transformation to global CO2 emission reduction and the potential for this sector to achieve peak carbon, we used a hybrid input–output model to explore the direct CO2 emissions of six power sectors classified by generation methods and their impact on CO2 emission by the non-power sector based on the total power sector output (electricity generation). We then used structural decomposition analysis to explore the drivers. From 2012 to 2021, the total indirect CO2 emissions of China's power sector grew from 138.59 Mt to 158.79 Mt (the share in the carbon footprint increased from 3.7% to 3.9%), an increase of 14.6%. Over the period from 2012 to 2021, the power structure effect consistently reduced direct and indirect CO2 emissions. Policy scenario simulations showed that 12 scenarios for 2035 are expected to achieve peak carbon in China's power sector. The transition of China's power sector to cleaner energy will contribute greatly to global CO2 reduction in all sectors. In scenarios APS-DER-LD and APS-DER-HD, where the power structure effect was strongest, China and other countries will simultaneously experience large decreases in carbon emission, with decreases of 43.5 and 36.6%, respectively.

Keywords: CO2 reduction; China power sector; Energy transformation; Peak carbon; Input–output model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124258

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