Two-stage planning of integrated energy systems under copula models informed cascading extreme weather uncertainty

Longxiang Chen, Ze Luo, Rui Jing, Kai Ye and Meina Xie

Applied Energy, 2025, vol. 380, issue C, No S0306261924023742

Abstract: Extreme weather events are becoming more intense and frequent globally. It is essential to enhance the resilience of energy system at the planning stage and mitigate negative impacts of these events on system performance by multi-energy integration and design optimization. Therefore, a two-stage integrated energy system planning framework is proposed in this work, which enhances the operational flexibility and resilience under extreme weather conditions. The correlation between floods and storm caused by typhoons is captured by copula models and incorporated into the integrated energy system planning model. The framework is applied to a case study of an industrial park with factory business and residence users. The results indicate that considering cascading extreme weather reduces the total cost and the interruption rate by 2.86 % and 53.71 %, respectively, compared to addressing single extreme weather events. For industrial parks with a high proportion of critical loads, the planning is more conservative, highlighting a reduced need for considering cascading extreme weather.

Keywords: Integrated; Modeling and planning; Copula; Cascading extreme weather events (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124990

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