A spatio-temporal decision-making model for solar, wind, and hybrid systems – A case study of Saudi Arabia

Mohamed R. Elkadeem, Ali Younes, Jakub Jurasz, Atif S. AlZahrani and Mohammad A. Abido

Applied Energy, 2025, vol. 383, issue C, No S0306261925000078

Abstract: This paper addresses the global transition to renewable energy sources driven by rising electricity demand, prices, pollution, and the energy crisis. A novel spatio-temporal decision-making model (STDMM) is developed to evaluate utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV), onshore wind turbine (WT), and hybrid PV/WT power development, using Saudi Arabia as a case study. Site selection and energetic complementarity analyses integrate ERA5 high-resolution weather data and more than twenty constraint/evaluation criteria, while techno-economic potential considers technology-specific parameters and infrastructure costs. The STDMM's results highlight the high development potential of PV in northern regions and WT in eastern areas due to favourable climate resources and infrastructure. Wind power's capacity factor and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) show greater variability than solar, with wind LCOE ranging from $34.8 to $125/MWh and solar from $43 to $78.6/MWh. This underscores the need for strategic planning in transmission and energy storage. To meet Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 targets, 4.81 % and 4.74 % of land is recommended for PV and WT projects. Hybrid parks maximize solar and wind resources but face curtailment risks. The study's findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and utilities in setting renewable energy targets and guiding effective land use planning.

Keywords: Sustainable energy development; Spatio-temporal analysis; Solar PV; Onshore WT; Complementarity analysis; ERA5 reanalysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.125277

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