Carbon-aware dynamic tariff design for electric vehicle charging stations with explainable stochastic optimization

Carlos A.M. Silva and Ricardo J. Bessa

Applied Energy, 2025, vol. 389, issue C, No S0306261925004040

Abstract: The electrification of the transport sector is a critical element in the transition to a low-emissions economy, driven by the widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EV) and the integration of renewable energy sources (RES). However, managing the increasing demand for EV charging infrastructure while meeting carbon emission reduction targets is a significant challenge for charging station operators. This work introduces a novel carbon-aware dynamic pricing framework for EV charging, formulated as a chance-constrained optimization problem to consider forecast uncertainties in RES generation, load, and grid carbon intensity. The model generates day-ahead dynamic tariffs for EV drivers with a certain elastic behavior while optimizing costs and complying with a carbon emissions budget. Different types of budgets for Scope 2 emissions (indirect emissions of purchased electricity consumed by a company) are conceptualized and demonstrate the advantages of a stochastic approach over deterministic models in managing emissions under forecast uncertainty, improving the reduction rate of emissions per feasible day of optimization by 24 %. Additionally, a surrogate machine learning model is proposed to approximate the outcomes of stochastic optimization, enabling the application of state-of-the-art explainability techniques to enhance understanding and communication of dynamic pricing decisions under forecast uncertainty. It was found that lower tariffs are explained, for instance, by periods of higher renewable energy availability and lower market prices and that the most important feature was the hour of the day.

Keywords: Electric vehicles; Demand response; Renewable energy; Carbon emissions; Uncertainty forecasting; Stochastic optimization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.125674

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