The impact of Covid and Ukrainian war in EU electricity demand and carbon emissions in power generation under high penetration of electric vehicles

Emmanouil Gryparis, Perikles Papadopoulos, Georgios A. Vokas and Constantinos S. Psomopoulos

Applied Energy, 2025, vol. 393, issue C, No S0306261925007524

Abstract: The European Union is addressing climate and environmental challenges with a view to moving towards a climate-neutral continent by 2050. Its efforts are based on international agreements and the need for measures and initiatives taken by the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union, with the energy transition in various sectors as a key focus. The road transport sector is the most polluting factor for the environment, hence the urgent need to replace the fleet of cars with conventional engines by electric motors. In recent years, electromobility has become more popular in the preferences of EU citizens. The car manufacturers, in support of this effort, have focused their attention on producing more electric vehicles, limiting the number of cars that use conventional fuels. This paper tries to estimate the penetration of electric cars in the EU, the electric demand for charging them and the carbon emissions that will result from the existing energy mix. Common mathematical forecasting models will be used for these calculations. Afterwards, an attempt will be made to compare between an old publication and new data from this research, including data from COVID-19 and the war conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In addition, Monte Carlo analysis will be used for sensitivity analysis, enabling the reliability of the results. The results of the comparison show that the increasing penetration of electric cars in EU countries, with the existing energy mix, will lead to an increase in electricity demand resulting in an increase in atmospheric emissions, except in the case of the pandemic, where despite the expansion of electric vehicles and the existing energy mix, lower carbon emissions in the atmosphere are observed.

Keywords: Carbon dioxide (CO2); Electric vehicle (EV); Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Battery electric vehicle (BEV); Electricity demand; Renewable energy sources (RES) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126022

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