Exploring the carbon neutrality pathway for China's aluminium industry: An analysis from 1950 to 2060

Xueyuan Zhu and Qiang Jin

Applied Energy, 2025, vol. 393, issue C, No S0306261925008207

Abstract: China's aluminium industry is responsible for 55 % of the GHG emissions from global aluminium production. With China's ambitious net-zero emission goal, exploring a carbon neutrality pathway for the aluminium industry is essential. In this study, we traced historical GHG emissions from China's aluminium production since 1950, revealing cumulative emissions of 7790 Mt. CO2 by 2020. The power grid, thermal energy, and anode consumption contributed 66.7 %, 19.1 %, and 9.8 % of the emissions, respectively. Spatial-temporal analysis indicates that the unstable supply of hydropower may hinder the ongoing migration of aluminium production capacity from East and Central China to the Southwest. Decarbonising the power grid in North and Northwest China should be the next priority. Moreover, we proposed six mitigation strategies, including production control, energy conservation, hydrogen application, power grid decarbonisation, inert anode application, and carbon capture. Scenario analysis demonstrates that achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, or even as early as 2053, is feasible. Cost analysis further suggests that, with rising carbon prices, new technologies such as hydrogen production are expected to become cost-competitive around 2050.

Keywords: Aluminium; Greenhouse gas emission; Carbon neutrality; Scenario analysis; Driving force analysis; Cost analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126090

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