Energy-saving potential by regulating heat pump heating systems in rural areas with latent class analysis

Zhihao Wan, Zhaoying Wang, Guowei Lv, Shixuan Li, Huan Zhang, Jakub Jurasz and Wandong Zheng

Applied Energy, 2025, vol. 397, issue C, No S0306261925011018

Abstract: With the implementation of the coal-to-electricity policy, heat pumps have become the primary heating equipment for rural dwellings in northern China. However, their widespread adoption has also led to a substantial increase in electricity consumption. Although regulating the outlet temperature of heat pumps can effectively save energy, it is not a commonly favored active adaptation behavior among farmers to indoor thermal environments. To explore the farmers' willingness to regulate heat pumps, the theory of planned behavior is introduced to investigating their agreement degrees with five statements about the regulatory behavior. According to their preferences for these statements, farmers are classified using latent class analysis, and corresponding operation modes of heat pumps are defined for each class. Consequently, the energy-saving potential of heating, achieved by regulating farmers' behavior towards heat pumps in rural areas of northern China, is quantified. The results indicate that farmers can be grouped into four categories based on their preferences for heat pump regulation. The largest category, labeled “Neutral”, accounts for 31.3 % of respondents, followed by “Against” (24.6 %), “Favorable” (23.4 %), and “Positive” (20.7 %). Compared to the scenario without heat pump regulation, the energy-saving potential can be as high as 12 % by regulating heat pumps on-demand. If all households in northern China adopted “Positive” heat pump regulation, it could result in daily savings of 281 GWh of electricity and a reduction of 171 kt of CO2 emissions.

Keywords: Heat pump regulation; Latent class analysis; Theory of planned behavior; Heating energy consumption (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126371

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