The optimal is not always the best: Life cycle impacts of near-optimal energy systems

Alexander de Tomás-Pascual, Laura À. Pérez-Sánchez, Miquel Sierra-Montoya, Francesco Lombardi, Stefan Pfenninger-Lee, Inês Campos and Cristina Madrid-López

Applied Energy, 2025, vol. 399, issue C, No S0306261925012176

Abstract: Energy system optimization models (ESOMs) can be used to guide long-term energy transitions but often overlook environmental impacts and the diversity of solutions close to the cost-optimal one. Here, we combine an ESOM using Modelling to Generate Alternatives (MGA) with Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to evaluate 260 near-optimal and technologically diverse carbon-neutral energy system designs for Portugal in 2050 across five environmental indicators: climate change, land use, water use, ecotoxicity, and materials. Using the Calliope energy modelling framework and ENBIOS for environmental assessment, we find that system designs whose cost is within 10 % of the minimum feasible cost provide up to 50 % lower environmental impacts. Our results reveal a trade-off between technological diversity and environmental performance, showing that while diversity enhances resilience, this may come with a significant increase in environmental drawbacks. Solar photovoltaic and battery technologies dominate the environmental impacts, particularly in water consumption and critical material use. This study shows that traditional cost-optimal energy system designs may not be environmentally optimal. Exploring near-optimal alternatives reveals lower-impact solutions and supports more inclusive planning for energy transitions.

Keywords: Energy system optimization models; Life cycle assessment; Energy transition; Environmental impacts; Technological diversity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126487

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