The flexibility dilemma―managing cost and emissions in a fossil fuel-dominated power sector under increasing penetration of variable renewable energy sources

Subhadip Bhattacharya, Rangan Banerjee, Venkatasailanathan Ramadesigan, Ariel Liebman and Roger Dargaville

Applied Energy, 2026, vol. 405, issue C, No S0306261925019294

Abstract: The limited flexibility of thermal power plants (TPP) is crucial when assessing the transition to higher penetration of variable renewable energy resources (VRES). This study develops an enhanced TIMES-based power-sector optimisation framework that integrates unit-level technical and operational constraints into a multi-stage capacity expansion model with hourly dispatch resolution. This approach endogenises TPP-specific dynamics—including minimum load, ramp rates, start-up/shut-down behaviour, minimum on/off duration, and part-load efficiency variation—features that are typically simplified or omitted in conventional long-term energy system models. The cost-minimising model is applied to India's power sector, beginning from 2020 until 2032, to assess the trade-off between system cost, CO₂ emissions, and flexibility under alternative coal retirement and retrofitting scenarios.

Keywords: Decarbonisation; Power sector; Flexibility; Operational planning; Renewable integration; TIMES model; Unit commitment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.127199

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