Intensification of wind energy droughts and enhanced spatial co-occurrence across China under future climate scenarios

Mingquan Li, Zixin Liu, Yitian Huang, Yunze Li, Rui Shan and Yan Li

Applied Energy, 2026, vol. 415, issue C, No S0306261926005167

Abstract: Wind energy, crucial for climate change mitigation, is increasingly affected by the changing climate, posing substantial threats to power system reliability. Despite the importance of understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of wind energy droughts under various climate pathways, current knowledge is limited. Using 151 years (1950–2100) of hourly, 0.7° × 0.7° CMIP6 data under four climate scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, SSP5–8.5), we quantify the escalation of drought severity and spatial synchronicity across China. By 2100, extreme “red” droughts rise by 62.9% and mean capacity factor falls by 15.8% under SSP5–8.5 relative to the 1950–2014 baseline. Northern and coastal provinces—Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Jiangsu, Guangdong—show the highest concurrent drought risk, with Jaccard similarity >0.5 extending >500 km under severe warming. To our knowledge, this is the first nationwide, hourly-resolution assessment of how divergent SSP climates impact both the severity and spatial synchronicity of wind energy droughts across China. The findings underscore the need for climate-aware siting, expanded transmission and long-duration storage to safeguard low-carbon reliability.

Keywords: Climate change; Wind energy; Energy droughts; Spatial coincidence; Deep decarbonization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127864

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