Modified logit-function demand model for predicting national crude-oil and natural-gas consumptions

R.M. Mackay and S.D. Probert

Applied Energy, 1994, vol. 49, issue 1, 75-90

Abstract: This paper presents a novel approach to demand forecasting for both crude oil and natural gas: it can be applied with confidence for any country that is politically and economically stable. However, because of these uncertainties and social factors, it is often difficult to formulate a wise policy concerning long-term energy requirements. None the less, there is a need for each country to formulate a sustainable energy strategy. Thus it is desirable to be able to predict accurately future demand requirements for crude oil and natural gas, and so a mathematical model has been developed that can be used with readily-available standard data: it is referred to as the [`]modified logit-function demand model'. It is based on saturation curve extrapolations for the appropriate energy intensity (i.e. fuel consumption/GDP), population and GDP/capita. When new input data become available, revised and hence improved projected-demand estimates can be derived readily.

Date: 1994
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