Crude-oil and natural-gas supplies and demands up to ad 2010 for the unified germany

R.M. Mackay and S.D. Probert

Applied Energy, 1994, vol. 49, issue 3, 255-274

Abstract: A novel technique for forecasting the supply and extraction life-cycle of depleting fossil-fuel resources has been applied to crude-oil and natural-gas productions in the unified Germany. The supply side utilises a [`]skewed-normal production-profile' model, that yields a better representation than earlier approaches. A simple model for extrapolating crude-oil and natural-gas demands for Unified Germany has also been devised and based on the so-called [`]modified logit function'. The projected crude-oil and natural-gas balances for the period up to ad 2010 indicate the increasing disparities between both the indigenous crude-oil and natural-gas productions and the future consumption requirements for Germany. The magnitudes of these forecasts depend on current estimates of the remaining oil and gas reserves. Therefore it will be necessary to revise periodically the present projections as more reliable reserve-estimates become available.

Date: 1994
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