 Skewed-normal production-profile model and reverse-projection technique for resource and supply predictionsR.M. Mackay and S.D. Probert Applied Energy, 1994, vol. 49, issue 4, 343-367 Abstract: This paper discusses a unique approach to the mathematical modelling of the extraction life-cycle of any depleting fossil-fuel resource and is applied to crude-oil and natural-gas production. The skewed-normal production-profile (i.e. production rate versus time) model, (i) yields a better representation than can be achieved with earlier approaches, and (ii) is appropriate for use with production data that rise quickly with time to a peak and then slowly decline, but is unsatisfactory for use when the profile exhibits more than one peak. In many circumstances the profile is less systematatic in shape, often as a result of temporary political, economic or on-stream factors. Under such circumstances, it is suggested that the skewed-normal production-profile (SNPP) model be used in conjunction with the reverse-projection (RP) technique. The application of the model, without and with a reverse projection through the data, is demonstrated briefly using UK crude-oil and natural-gas production rates. Date: 1994 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:appene:v:49:y:1994:i:4:p:343-367 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article Applied Energy is currently edited by J. Yan More articles in Applied Energy from Elsevier |
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