Short-term forecasting of crude petroleum and natural gas production

Noel D. Uri and Stephen P. Flanagan

Applied Energy, 1979, vol. 5, issue 4, 297-310

Abstract: This paper details the Box-Jenkins approach to forecasting time series and applies it to short-term natural gas marketed production and crude petroleum production in the United States. After establishing the efficacy of the approach for forecasting the two series of interest, monthly forecasts for 1978 are made. The results indicate that natural gas production in 1978 will increase by 2·8 per cent over the 1977 level while crude petroleum production will fall by 4·0 per cent.

Date: 1979
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