Can Markov regime-switching models improve power-price forecasts? Evidence from German daily power prices

Peter Kosater and Karl Mosler

Applied Energy, 2006, vol. 83, issue 9, 943-958

Abstract: Non-linear autoregressive Markov regime-switching models are intuitive. Time-series approaches for the modelling of electricity spot prices are frequently proposed. In this paper, such models are compared with an ordinary linear autoregressive model with regard to their forecast performances. The study is carried out using German daily spot-prices from the European Energy Exchange in Leipzig. Four non-linear models are used for the forecast study. The results of the study suggest that Markov regime-switching models provide better forecasts than linear models.

Keywords: Electricity; spot; prices; Markov; regime-switching; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (54)

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