Forecasting the cost of energy conser vation in the transportation sector

Hyder G. Lakhani

Applied Energy, 1981, vol. 9, issue 2, 139-151

Abstract: This paper attempts to estimate and forecast the cost of energy conservation in the transportation sector to the year 2000. It stipulates conservation as a depleting resource industry so that the costs tend to increase as additional quantities of energy are conserved. The methodology is that of regression equations and the data are from the US Department of Transportation and the Department of Energy. The regressions of annual costs on corresponding annual quantities of conservation have a good fit and positive and statistically significant coefficients. Hence the theory of energy conservation as a depleting resource industry or that of increasing cost is vindicated. The elasticity of cost with respect to conservation is 1·12 so that an increase in conservation by 1 per cent tends to increase cost by 1·12 per cent.

Date: 1981
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