Financial forecasting in the lab and the field: Qualified professionals vs. smart students

Te Bao, Brice Corgnet, Nobuyuki Hanaki, Katsuhiko Okada, Yohanes E. Riyanto and Jiahua Zhu

Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 2025, vol. 46, issue C

Abstract: We compare the performance of financial professionals (CFAs) with university students in four financial forecasting tasks ranging from simple lab prediction tasks to longitudinal field prediction tasks. Although students and professionals performed similarly in the most artificial forecasting tasks, CFAs outperformed students in the field predictions. Differences in forecasting performance between finance professionals and students were explained by financial literacy, not cognitive ability.

Keywords: Financial forecasting; financial professionals; financial literacy; cognitive skills (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C91 C93 D91 G17 G41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Related works:
Working Paper: Financial forecasting in the lab and the field: Qualified professionals vs. smart students (2025)
Working Paper: Financial Forecasting in the Lab and the Field: Qualified Professionals vs. Smart Students (2024)
Working Paper: Financial Forecasting in the Lab and the Field: Qualified Professionals vs. Smart Students (2022)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:beexfi:v:46:y:2025:i:c:s2214635025000322

DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2025.101051

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