Financial Forecasting in the Lab and the Field: Qualified Professionals vs. Smart Students

Te Bao, Brice Corgnet, Nobuyuki Hanaki, Katsuhiko Okada, Yohanes Riyanto and Jiahua Zhu

ISER Discussion Paper from Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka

Abstract: We compare the performance of financial professionals (CFAs) with university students in four financial forecasting tasks ranging from simple lab prediction tasks to longitudinal field prediction tasks. Although students and professionals performed similarly in the most artificial forecasting tasks, CFAs outperformed students in the field predictions. Differences in forecasting performance between finance professionals and students were explained by financial literacy, not cognitive ability.

Date: 2022-01, Revised 2024-09
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https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/static/resources/docs/dp/2022/DP1156R.pdf

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Working Paper: Financial Forecasting in the Lab and the Field: Qualified Professionals vs. Smart Students (2022)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1156r

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