Prediction and analysis of regional economic income multiplication capability based on fractional accumulation and integral model

Jing Fang

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2020, vol. 130, issue C

Abstract: The regional economic income multiplication plan is the target set by many economic development zones. The multiplication plan time is an important research hotspot of economic development planning. The paper uses fractional-order accumulation to generate GMλ(1, 1)-gray prediction model to predict the per capita income level of a region. The data is derived from the per capita income of the region in 2009–2013, and predicts the per capita income capacity. Through research and calculation, it is found that using the fractional calculus λ value in the error controllable range can make the prediction result more reasonable and more accurate. The final case study demonstrates that the region’s per capita income doubling plan can be completed by 2020.

Keywords: Fractional-order cumulative integration model; GMλ(1,1) Grey prediction; Regional economy; Income multiplication plan (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:130:y:2020:i:c:s096007791930387x

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2019.109441

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