COVID-19 created chaos across the globe: Three novel quarantine epidemic models

Bimal Kumar Mishra, Ajit Kumar Keshri, Yerra Shankar Rao, Binay Kumar Mishra, Buddhadeo Mahato, Syeda Ayesha, Bansidhar Prasad Rukhaiyyar, Dinesh Kumar Saini and Aditya Kumar Singh

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2020, vol. 138, issue C

Abstract: The latest version of human coronavirus said to be COVID-19 came out as a sudden pandemic disease within human population and in the absence of vaccination and proper treatment till date, it daunting threats heavily to human lives, infecting more than 12, 11, 214 people and death more than 67, 666 people in 208 countries across the globe as on April 06, 2020, which is highly alarming. When no treatment or vaccine is available till date and to avoid COVID-19 to be transmitted in the community, social distancing is the only way to prevent the disease, which is well taken into account in our novel epidemic models as a special compartment, that is, home isolation. Based on the transmitting behavior of COVID-19 in the human population, we develop three quarantine models of this pandemic taking into account the compartments: susceptible population, immigrant population, home isolation population, infectious population, hospital quarantine population, and recovered population. Local and global asymptotic stability is proved for all the three models. Extensive numerical simulations are performed to establish the analytical results with suitable examples. Our research reveals that home isolation and quarantine to hospitals are the two pivot force-control policies under the present situation when no treatment is available for this pandemic.

Keywords: Mathematical models; Pandemic disease; COVID-19; Reproduction number; Home isolation; Quarantine (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:138:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920303271

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109928

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