Evaluation and prediction of COVID-19 in India: A case study of worst hit states

Danish Rafiq, Suhail Ahmad Suhail and Mohammad Abid Bazaz

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2020, vol. 139, issue C

Abstract: In this manuscript, system modeling and identification techniques are applied in developing a prognostic yet deterministic model to forecast the spread of COVID-19 in India. The model is verified with the historical data and a forecast of the spread for 30-days is presented in the 10 most affected states of India. The major results suggest that our model can very well capture the disease variations with high accuracy. The results also show a steep rise in the total cumulative cases and deaths in the coming weeks.

Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; Pandemic; System identification (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:139:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920304124

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110014

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