Momentum managing epidemic spread and Bessel functions

Ivan Cherednik

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2020, vol. 139, issue C

Abstract: Starting with the power law for the total number of detected infections, we propose differential equations describing the effect of momentum epidemic management. Our 2-phase formula matches very well the curves of the total numbers of the Covid-19 infection in many countries; the first phase is described by Bessel functions. It provides projections for the saturation, assuming that the management is steady. We discuss Austria, Brazil, Germany, Japan, India, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, and the USA, including some analysis of the second waves.

Keywords: Epidemic spread; Epidemic psychology; Bessel functions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:139:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920306305

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110234

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