A stretched logistic equation for pandemic spreading

Giuseppe Consolini and Massimo Materassi

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2020, vol. 140, issue C

Abstract: In this brief work we present a novel approach to the logistic dynamics of populations and epidemic spreading that can take into account of the complex nature of such a process in several real situations, where due to different agents the dynamics is no longer characterized by a single characteristic timescale, but conversely by a distribution of time scales, rendered via a time-dependent growth rate. In detail, a differential equation containing a power-law time dependent growth rate is proposed, whose solution, named Stretched Logistic Function, provides a modified version of the usual logistic function. The model equation is inspired by and applied to the recent spreading on COVID-19 disease in Italy, showing how the real dynamics of infection spreading is characterized by a time dependent dynamics. A speculative discussion of the Stretched Logistic Function in relation to diffusion processes is attempted.

Keywords: Pandemic spreading; Logistic regression; Complex dynamics; COVID-19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:140:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920305105

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110113

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