A minimal model of hospital patients’ dynamics in COVID-19

David Papo, Marco Righetti, Luciano Fadiga, Fabio Biscarini and Massimiliano Zanin

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2020, vol. 140, issue C

Abstract: Italy has been one of the countries hardest hit by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. While the overall policy in response to the epidemic was to a large degree centralised, the regional basis of the healthcare system represented an important factor affecting the natural dynamics of the disease induced geographic specificities. Here, we characterise the region-specific modulation of COVID dynamics with a reduced exponential model leveraging available data on sub-intensive and intensive care unit patients made available by all regional councils from the very onset of the disease. This simple model provides a rather good fit of regional patient dynamics, particularly for regions where the affected population was large, highlighting important region-specific patterns of epidemic dynamics.

Keywords: COVID-19; Discrete-time model; Patients’ dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:140:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920305531

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110157

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