Optimal quarantine strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic in a population with a discrete age structure

João A.M. Gondim and Larissa Machado

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2020, vol. 140, issue C

Abstract: The goal of this work is to study the optimal controls for the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil. We consider an age-structured SEIRQ model with quarantine compartment, where the controls are the quarantine entrance parameters. We then compare the optimal controls for different quarantine lengths and distributions of the total control cost by assessing their respective reductions in deaths in comparison to the same period without quarantine. The best strategy provides a calendar of when to relax the isolation measures for each age group. Finally, we analyse how a delay in the beginning of the quarantine affects this calendar by changing the initial conditions.

Keywords: COVID-19; Quarantine; SEIR model; Optimal control (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:140:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920305622

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110166

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