Global stability analysis of the role of multi-therapies and non-pharmaceutical treatment protocols for COVID-19 pandemic

Bassey Echeng Bassey and Jeremiah U. Atsu

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2021, vol. 143, issue C

Abstract: In this paper, we sought and presented an 8-Dimensional deterministic mathematical COVID-19 dynamic model that accounted for the global stability analysis of the role of dual-bilinear treatment protocols of COVID-19 infection. The model, which is characterized by human-to-human transmission mode was investigated using dual non-pharmaceutical (face-masking and social distancing) and dual pharmaceutical (hydroxylchloroquine and azithromycin) as control functions following the interplay of susceptible population and varying infectious population. First, we investigated the model state-space and then established and computed the system reproduction number for both off-treatment ℜ0(1)=10.94 and for onset-treatment ℜ0(2)=3.224. We considered the model for off-treatment and thereafter by incorporating the theory of LaSalle's invariant principle into the classical method of Lyapunov functions, we presented an approach for global stability analysis of COVID-19 dynamics. Numerical verification of system theoretical predictions was computed using in-built Runge-Kutta of order of precision 4 in a Mathcad surface. The set approach produces highly significant results in the main text. For example, while rapid population extinction was observed by the susceptible under off-treatment scenario in the first tf≤18 days, the application of non-pharmaceuticals at early stage of infection proved very effective strategy in curtailing the spread of the virus. Moreso, the implementation of dual pharmacotherapies in conjunction with non-pharmaceuticals yields tremendous rejuvenation of susceptible population (0.5≤Sp(t)≤3.143cells/ml3) with maximal reduction in the rates of isolation, super spreaders and hospitalization of the infectives. Thus, experimental results of investigation affirm the suitability of proposed model for the control and treatment of the deadly disease provided individuals adheres to treatment protocols.

Keywords: Global-stability-conditions; Lyapunov-stable; Measure-zero; Coronavirus; Dual-bilinear-control-functions; Super-spreader (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:143:y:2021:i:c:s0960077920309656

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110574

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