Forecasting of COVID-19 using deep layer Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) with Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) cells

K.E. ArunKumar, Dinesh V. Kalaga, Ch. Mohan Sai Kumar, Masahiro Kawaji and Timothy M Brenza

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2021, vol. 146, issue C

Abstract: In December 2019, first case of the COVID-19 was reported in Wuhan, Hubei province in China. Soon world health organization has declared contagious coronavirus disease (a.k.a. COVID-19) as a global pandemic in the month of March 2020. Over the span of eleven months, it has rapidly spread out all over the world with total confirmed cases of ~ 41.39 M and causing a total fatality of ~1.13 M. At present, the entire mankind is facing serious threat and it is believed that COVID-19 may have been around for quite some time. Therefore, it has become imperative to forecast the global impact of COVID-19 in the near future. The present work proposes state-of-art deep learning Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) models to predict the country-wise cumulative confirmed cases, cumulative recovered cases and the cumulative fatalities. The Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) cells along with Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) were developed to predict the future trends of the COVID-19. We have used publicly available data from John Hopkins University's COVID-19 database. In this work, we emphasize the importance of various factors such as age, preventive measures, and healthcare facilities, population density, etc. that play vital role in rapid spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, our forecasted results are very helpful for countries to better prepare themselves to control the pandemic.

Keywords: Forecasting COVID-19 pandemic; Time series analysis; Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs); Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM); Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:146:y:2021:i:c:s0960077921002149

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110861

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