Gompertz model in COVID-19 spreading simulation

E. Pelinovsky, M. Kokoulina, A. Epifanova, A. Kurkin, O. Kurkina, M. Tang, E. Macau and M. Kirillin

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2022, vol. 154, issue C

Abstract: The paper reports on application of the Gompertz model to describe the growth dynamics of COVID-19 cases during the first wave of the pandemic in different countries. Modeling has been performed for 23 countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Great Britain, Germany, Denmark, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Canada, China, the Netherlands, Norway, Serbia, Turkey, France, Czech Republic, Switzerland, South Korea, USA, Mexico, and Japan. The model parameters are determined by regression analysis based on official World Health Organization data available for these countries. The comparison of the predictions given by the Gompertz model and the simple logistic model (i.e., Verhulst model) is performed allowing to conclude on the higher accuracy of the Gompertz model.

Keywords: Gompertz model; Logistic equation; Mathematical modeling; COVID-19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:154:y:2022:i:c:s0960077921010535

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111699

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