Analysis and simulation of a two-strain disease model with nonlinear incidence

Md Abdul Kuddus, Emma S. McBryde, Adeshina I. Adekunle and Michael T. Meehan

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2022, vol. 155, issue C

Abstract: We analysed and simulated a two-strain Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with varying population size and nonlinear incidence. We found that in addition to the infection-free and two single-strain endemic equilibria, the non-linear incidence term induces a fourth equilibrium point where the two strains co-exist. We determined the conditions for the existence and stability of each of the four equilibrium points, and showed that these depend on both the traditional basic reproduction numbers (R0) of each strain and a set of generalized threshold parameters (ψand γ). In particular, we used appropriate Lyapunov functions to show that these generalized quantities define strict boundaries that separate regions of parameter space in which each of the equilibrium points are unstable or globally asymptotically stable. Further, we used sensitivity analysis and the Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) method to identify the most influential model parameters on transmission and disease prevalence, finding that the contact rate of both strains had the largest influence on both. Finally, numerical simulations were carried out to support the analytic results.

Keywords: Multi-strain; Stability and sensitivity analysis; Nonlinear incidence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077921009917
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:155:y:2022:i:c:s0960077921009917

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111637

Access Statistics for this article

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals is currently edited by Stefano Boccaletti and Stelios Bekiros

More articles in Chaos, Solitons & Fractals from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Thayer, Thomas R. ().