Sensitivity theorems of a model of multiple imperfect vaccines for COVID-19

Fernando Javier Aguilar-Canto, Ugo Avila-Ponce de León and Eric Avila-Vales

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2022, vol. 156, issue C

Abstract: In response to the ongoing pandemic of COVID-19, several companies across the world have proposed a wide variety of vaccines of different mechanisms of action. As a consequence, a new scenario of multiple imperfect vaccines against the SARS-CoV-2 arose. Mathematical modeling needs to consider this complex situation with different vaccines, some of them with two required doses. Using compartmental models we can simplify, simulate and most importantly, answer questions related to the development of the outbreak and the vaccination campaign. We present a model that addresses the current situation of COVID-19 and vaccination. Two important questions were considered in this paper: are more vaccines useful to reduce the spread of the coronavirus? How can we know if the vaccination campaign is sufficient? Two sensitivity criteria are helpful to answer these questions. The first criterion is the Multiple Vaccination Theorem, which indicates whether a vaccine is giving a positive or negative impact on the reproduction number. The second result (Insufficiency Theorem) provides a condition to answer the second question. Finally, we fitted the parameters with data and discussed the empirical results of six countries: Israel, Germany, the Czech Republic, Portugal, Italy, and Lithuania.

Keywords: SIR-Based models; Imperfect vaccines; COVID-19; Sensitivity analysis; Elasticity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:156:y:2022:i:c:s0960077922000558

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.111844

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