A periodic Chikungunya model with virus mutation and transovarial transmission

Yan Wang, Yazhi Li, Lili Liu and Xianning Liu

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2022, vol. 158, issue C

Abstract: In this paper, a Chikungunya dynamical model with virus mutation and transovarial transmission is developed, which incorporates the effect of seasonal temperature changes on disease transmission through time-dependent parameters. Firstly, the threshold parameter R0m that determines the persistence and extinction of mosquito populations is given, and then the disease reproduction number R0 is defined. Secondly, it is proved that if R0m > 1 and R0 < 1, the disease disappears; if R0m > 1 and R0 > 1, then Chikungunya with mutants and non-mutants will persist simultaneously. Finally, a case study is carried out with the data in Kerala, India, where the virus mutation causes the outbreak of Chikungunya. Data on newly confirmed human cases in the state between 2007 and 2010 is fitted and the theoretical results obtained in the previous section are validated. In addition, the effects of seasonal temperature change, virus mutation and transovarial transmission on the prevalence of the disease are studied by numerical simulations from different aspects.

Keywords: Chikungunya dynamical model; Seasonal temperature change; Virus mutation; Transovarial transmission; Uniform persistence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077922002120
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:158:y:2022:i:c:s0960077922002120

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112002

Access Statistics for this article

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals is currently edited by Stefano Boccaletti and Stelios Bekiros

More articles in Chaos, Solitons & Fractals from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Thayer, Thomas R. ().