A novel blood glucose time series prediction framework based on a novel signal decomposition method

Ting Zhu, Wenbo Wang and Min Yu

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2022, vol. 164, issue C

Abstract: Unstable blood glucose levels will bring about a series of complications, and even threaten our life in severe cases. Therefore, accurately predicting and controlling blood glucose has become an indispensable part of diabetes treatment. For the sake of boosting the accuracy of blood glucose prediction, a novel time-frequency signal analytical technology called improved ensemble empirical mode decomposition based on fractal dimension (FEEMD) is first proposed to decompose the nonlinear and non-stationary raw blood glucose series to obtain intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and residual components (Rs) in different frequency bands. Then, in order to overcome the problem that the kernel extreme learning machine (KELM) is easy to fall into the local optimum, the sparrow search algorithm (SSA) is introduced to further enhance the robustness and stability of KELM model. Ultimately, the predictions of each optimized KELM are fused to achieve the final prognostic results. Through the experimental results of three patients, the following contributions can be summarized: (a) FEEMD exploits the box-counting dimension to remove abnormal signals in the original sequence, which guarantees the completeness of decomposition and obtains better decomposition results; (b) SSA is exploited to optimize the KELM, which can significantly boost the prediction effects; (c) When compared with the other seven benchmark models, the proposed framework in this paper is more suitable for predicting blood glucose and has higher prediction accuracy; (d) This paper also verifies that the proposed architecture can effectively reduce the false negative rate and increase the overall alarming accuracy in early warning of hypoglycemia.

Keywords: Blood glucose prognosis; Sparrow search algorithm; Kernel-based extreme learning machine; Fractal dimension; Ensemble empirical mode decomposition; Hypoglycemic warning (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:164:y:2022:i:c:s0960077922008529

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112673

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