Modeling secondary infections with temporary immunity and disease enhancement factor: Mechanisms for complex dynamics in simple epidemiological models

Vanessa Steindorf, Akhil Kumar Srivastav, Nico Stollenwerk, Bob W. Kooi and Maíra Aguiar

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2022, vol. 164, issue C

Abstract: Modeling insights for epidemiological scenarios characterized by chaotic dynamics have been largely unexplored. A rigorous analysis of such systems are essential for a real predictive power and a more accurate disease control decision making. Motivated by dengue fever epidemiology, we study a basic SIR–SIR type model for the host population, capturing differences between primary and secondary infections. This model is the minimalistic version to previously suggested multi-strain models for dengue fever in which deterministic chaos was found in wider parameter regions. Without strain structure of pathogens, we consider temporary immunity after a primary infection and disease enhancement in a subsequent infection to identify to which extent these biological mechanisms can generate complex behavior in simple epidemiological models.

Keywords: Bifurcation analysis; Bi-stability; Chaos; Temporary immunity; Disease enhancement; Secondary infection (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:164:y:2022:i:c:s0960077922008888

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112709

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