Spatio-temporal chaos and clustering induced by nonlocal information and vaccine hesitancy in the SIR epidemic model

Malay Banerjee, Samiran Ghosh, Piero Manfredi and d’Onofrio, Alberto

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2023, vol. 170, issue C

Abstract: Human behavior, and in particular vaccine hesitancy, is a critical factor for the control of childhood infectious disease. Here we propose a spatio-temporal behavioral epidemiology model where the vaccine propensity depends on information that is non-local in space and in time. The properties of the proposed model are analyzed under different hypotheses on the spatio-temporal kernels tuning the vaccination response of individuals. As a main result, we could numerically show that vaccine hesitancy induces the onset of many dynamic patterns of relevance for epidemiology. In particular we observed: behavior-modulated patterns and spatio-temporal chaos. This is the first known example of human behavior-induced spatio-temporal chaos in statistical physics of vaccination. Patterns and spatio-temporal chaos are difficult to deal with, from the Public Health viewpoint, hence showing that vaccine hesitancy can cause them could be of interest. Additionally, we propose a new simple heuristic algorithm to estimate the Maximum Lyapunov Exponent.

Keywords: Vaccine hesitancy; Spatio-temporal chaos; Statistical Physics of Vaccinations; Non-locality; Turing bifurcation; Maximum Lyapunov Exponent (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:170:y:2023:i:c:s0960077923002400

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2023.113339

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