Anticipating food price crises by reservoir computing
L. Domingo,
M. Grande,
F. Borondo and
J. Borondo
Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2023, vol. 174, issue C
Abstract:
Anticipating price crises in the market of agri-commodities is critical to guarantee both the sustainability of the food system and to ensure food security. However, this is not an easy task, since the problem implies analyzing small and very volatile time series, which are highly influenced by external factors. In this paper, we show that suitable reservoir computing algorithms can be developed that outperform traditional approaches, by reducing the Mean Absolute Error and, more importantly, increasing the Market Direction Accuracy. For this purpose, the applicability of five variants of such method to forecast this market is explored, and their performance evaluated by comparing the results with those obtained with the standard LSTM and SARIMA benchmarks. We conclude that decomposing the time series and modeling each component with a separate RC is essential to successfully anticipate price trends, and that this method works even in the complex changing temporal scenario of the Covid-19 pandemic, when part of the data were collected.
Keywords: Machine learning; Reservoir Computing; Time series prediction; Food loss; Sustainability; Artificial Intelligence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)
Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077923007555
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:174:y:2023:i:c:s0960077923007555
DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2023.113854
Access Statistics for this article
Chaos, Solitons & Fractals is currently edited by Stefano Boccaletti and Stelios Bekiros
More articles in Chaos, Solitons & Fractals from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Thayer, Thomas R. ().