A new population model for urban infestations

Julia Calatayud, Marc Jornet, Jorge Mateu and Carla M.A. Pinto

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2023, vol. 175, issue P1

Abstract: The spread of rodents and insects in cities, in particular in summer periods, poses significant health, economic, social and environmental threats. The analysis of incidence and identification of seasonal and weather determinants are crucial for addressing intervention strategies. In this context, we investigate the occurrence of rats and cockroaches infestations in the city of Madrid, Spain, with differential equation models. Birth–death fluxes, sine–cosine waves and temperature conform the mechanistic nature of the models. Available data on citizen-reported sightings from 2010 until 2013 are fitted by parameter calibration and uncertain-error measurement. Numerical simulations show that the time series are adequately explained by the proposed models. This strongly suggests that the models can be used to predict future infestation dynamics, which can guide health policy measures.

Keywords: Cockroaches and rats sightings; Continuous dynamical system; Ecological modeling; Parameter estimation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077923008408
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:175:y:2023:i:p1:s0960077923008408

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2023.113939

Access Statistics for this article

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals is currently edited by Stefano Boccaletti and Stelios Bekiros

More articles in Chaos, Solitons & Fractals from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Thayer, Thomas R. ().