Parameters estimation and uncertainty assessment in the transmission dynamics of rabies in humans and dogs

Mfano Charles, Sayoki G. Mfinanga, G.A. Lyakurwa, Delfim F.M. Torres and Verdiana G. Masanja

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2024, vol. 189, issue P1

Abstract: Rabies remains a pressing global public health issue, demanding effective modeling and control strategies. This study focused on developing a mathematical model using ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to estimate parameters and assess uncertainties related to the transmission dynamics of rabies in humans and dogs. To determine model parameters and address uncertainties, next-generation matrices were utilized to calculate the basic reproduction number R0. Furthermore, the Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient was used to identify parameters that significantly influence model outputs. The analysis of equilibrium states revealed that the rabies-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R0<1, whereas the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R0≥1. To reduce the severity of rabies and align with the Global Rabies Control (GRC) initiative by 2030, the study recommends implementing control strategies targeting indoor domestic dogs.

Keywords: Rabies dynamics; Mathematical modeling; Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS); Contact rate; Parameter uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:189:y:2024:i:p1:s0960077924011858

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2024.115633

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