Assessing the vulnerability of empirical infrastructure networks to natural catastrophes
Tomas Scagliarini,
Oriol Artime and
Manlio De Domenico
Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2025, vol. 191, issue C
Abstract:
Human-made infrastructures are complex systems continually exposed to events that threat their function, such as cascading failures, occurring when the flow of physical quantities is redistributed within the network as a consequence of localized disruptions. Nevertheless, the role played by exogenous catastrophic events and internal failures on the robustness of critical infrastructures is usually addressed independently, under simplifying assumptions and lacking a unified picture for realistic risk assessments. Here, we fill this gap by introducing the Operational-Affected-Dismantled (OAD) model that captures both local and nonlocal failure propagation mechanisms. The model combines reaction–diffusion processes for local spreading with a global field effect for long-range interactions, allowing us to quantitatively characterize the cascade dynamics in infrastructure networks. Moreover, we include information on external stressors to assess the robustness of empirical network infrastructures and build spatial risk maps. By using data from severe storms (2009–2016) and from earthquakes (2000–2023) as stressors of the North American power grid and the worldwide airline transportation system, respectively, we offer a quantitative way to rank events by their potential to trigger systemic effects. By analyzing the response of the European power grid to simulated severe storms, we find that it can show high levels of systemic risk. Uncertainty in global climate and the accelerating frequency of extreme events all over the globe call for novel strategies to quantify, adapt to and mitigate systemic risk. Our framework provides a suitable starting point to assess the robustness of empirical systems in realistic and what-if scenarios.
Keywords: Complex systems; Complex networks; Phase transition; Risk map (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:
Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077924013651
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:191:y:2025:i:c:s0960077924013651
DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2024.115813
Access Statistics for this article
Chaos, Solitons & Fractals is currently edited by Stefano Boccaletti and Stelios Bekiros
More articles in Chaos, Solitons & Fractals from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Thayer, Thomas R. ().