Self-affine analysis and the universal crossover behavior of COVID-19 daily cases

Thiago B. Murari, Ronaldo Naziazeno, Bruna A.S. Machado, Tarcisio M. da Rocha Filho, Hernane B. de B. Pereira and Marcelo A. Moret

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2025, vol. 192, issue C

Abstract: We examined the time series of Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) cases and deaths using the detrended fluctuation analysis method. Understanding the intricate dynamics of COVID-19 transmission is essential for developing effective strategies to mitigate the impact of this disease. Long-range correlations were investigated, which could provide valuable insights into the patterns and mechanisms of COVID-19 transmission. The findings revealed a remarkable crossover phenomenon in the root-mean-square fluctuation, F(n), of the time series of COVID-19 cases. The crossover for daily cases of COVID-19 occurs at approximately two-week scales, indicating a transition from persistent to subdiffusive behavior in the spread of the disease. The observed crossover and the corresponding scale exponents α provide valuable insights into the dynamic behavior of COVID-19 over time. This highlights the importance of considering different time scales when analyzing the spread of the virus and could be useful in developing targeted interventions and control measures.

Keywords: COVID-19; DFA; Crossover; Time series (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:192:y:2025:i:c:s096007792500075x

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2025.116062

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