Flexible mitigation of epidemics by transport management

Fangzhou Liu, Dong Xue, Xinghu Yu, Zhihong Zhao, Shiying Lin, Songlin Zhuang, Charo I. del Genio, Stefano Boccaletti and Huijun Gao

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2025, vol. 194, issue C

Abstract: In recent years, the global spread of novel infectious diseases has become a significant concern at all levels of the society. The existence of a capillary transport network that facilitates the transmission of the diseases is a particular factor whose relevance cannot be underestimated. In fact, to try to slow down the spread of the recent COVID-19 pandemic, many governments adopted control measures that directly included travel restrictions. These measures, while undoubtedly effective, also had deleterious political and societal effects. In this article, we introduce an event-trigger mechanism in the decision-making framework for the mitigation of epidemics via transport management. Using our approach, we demonstrate that one can develop restriction policies in a controlled manner, so that the economic side effects remain tolerable. When applied to the COVID-19 pandemic data in Germany, our method shows better performance than the measures that were actually implemented.

Keywords: Epidemic mitigation; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; Optimization; Control (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:194:y:2025:i:c:s0960077925002243

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2025.116211

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