A risk-graded propagation and dynamic recovery algorithm for optimizing supply chain networks

Leilei Wu, Xixi Ding, Guanghan Bai, Liyan Yu and Yongxiang Xia

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2025, vol. 197, issue C

Abstract: Supply chain networks are highly susceptible to systemic failures when faced with localized risk shocks due to their complexity and high interconnectivity. In this paper, a multi-state model for supply chain risk transmission and recovery is constructed. By introducing hierarchical infection probabilities (α(n,f)) and recovery probabilities (μ(n,f,R)), the node states are dynamically updated, taking into full account node attributes such as risk levels, node fitness, and recovery costs. Notably, a handling strategy for node failures is designed. When a node enters the failure state (the D state), the impacts on the network topology and the states of neighboring nodes are analyzed in detail. Corresponding measures are taken, including removing the failed node and its connections and updating the states of neighboring nodes based on their degrees and impact factors. At the same time, a reconnection mechanism for healthy nodes is designed to reduce network fragmentation and maintain network connectivity and stability. Through simulations and empirical data analysis, the model effectively limits the spread of risk, reduces the failure rate of high-risk nodes, and enhances the overall connectivity of the network. It performs well in different network topologies, providing valuable insights and practical tools for optimizing risk management in complex supply chains.

Keywords: Supply chain management; Complex network; Risk transmission; SIR model; Risk management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077925004904
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:197:y:2025:i:c:s0960077925004904

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2025.116477

Access Statistics for this article

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals is currently edited by Stefano Boccaletti and Stelios Bekiros

More articles in Chaos, Solitons & Fractals from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Thayer, Thomas R. ().