 An adaptive stochastic model for financial marketsJuan Antonio Hernández, Rosa Marı´a Benito and Juan Carlos Losada Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2012, vol. 45, issue 6, 899-908 Abstract: An adaptive stochastic model is introduced to simulate the behavior of real asset markets. The model adapts itself by changing its parameters automatically on the basis of the recent historical data. The basic idea underlying the model is that a random variable uniformly distributed within an interval with variable extremes can replicate the histograms of asset returns. These extremes are calculated according to the arrival of new market information. This adaptive model is applied to the daily returns of three well-known indices: Ibex35, Dow Jones and Nikkei, for three complete years. The model reproduces the histograms of the studied indices as well as their autocorrelation structures. It produces the same fat tails and the same power laws, with exactly the same exponents, as in the real indices. In addition, the model shows a great adaptation capability, anticipating the volatility evolution and showing the same volatility clusters observed in the assets. This approach provides a novel way to model asset markets with internal dynamics which changes quickly with time, making it impossible to define a fixed model to fit the empirical observations. Date: 2012 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:45:y:2012:i:6:p:899-908 DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2012.03.005 Access Statistics for this article Chaos, Solitons & Fractals is currently edited by Stefano Boccaletti and Stelios Bekiros More articles in Chaos, Solitons & Fractals from Elsevier |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.